Saturday, February 18, 2012

An early look at the Rams' draft options

The Rams hold the number two pick in the NFL Draft this year, the fourth time in five years that they've held a top 5 pick. This year, however, the Rams have much more power with this pick. Assuming Stanford QB Andrew Luck goes to the Colts first overall, the Rams may be able to trade their pick to potential suitors who are clamoring to get the number two quarterback in the draft, Baylor's Robert Griffin. Of course, the Rams could also keep the pick, which could be used on any of the top 10 or so elite talents in this draft. Let's take a brief look at the Rams' options for the draft, and how likely each one will be implemented. Note that these are in no particular order.

OPTION 1: Draft Robert Griffin III second overall, trade Sam Bradford for draft picks
RGIII is one of the most highly touted quarterbacks in recent memory, and his level of success in the pros could be intriguing. After the success of Cam Newton last year, more teams are willing to take a chance on Griffin's talents at the college level. The term "bust" has been floated around Bradford's name recently, but it's only been his second season. Although Griffin's contract will be almost half that of Bradford's, many scouts believe that Bradford has the long-term potential to be a good quarterback, and it would make little sense for the Rams to start all over once again. The Rams need to establish a sense of stability, and keeping Bradford would be the best option. Plus, Fisher and Snead seem to believe in him.
Probability of it happening: 10%

OPTION 2: Draft Robert Griffin III second overall, keep Sam Bradford
The thinking here is that a quarterback competition will make both guys better, and RGIII is too great of a player to pass on. Ultimately, however, this would be an incredibly stupid move, as it would use up an unnecessary roster spot and financially strap the team when pursuing free agents in other areas of need.
Probability of it happening: 1%


OPTION 3: Draft Matt Kalil second overall
Many mock draft boards have Matt Kalil going somewhere in the top five, but most analysts tend to agree that he's the second best player overall in this draft. Kalil shows enormous potential, and could be vital to a shaky Rams O-Line. If the Rams can't find a trading partner for the second pick, perhaps Kalil would be a wise choice here. The downside of this is that the Rams have taken an O-lineman this high before (Jason Smith) who has the makings of being a bust. Would the Rams be willing to risk that again?
Probability of it happening: 65%


OPTION 4: Draft Justin Blackmon second overall
Justin Blackmon figures to be the top offensive weapon in this draft apart from the quarterbacks. Blackmon has a good frame and receiving skills necessary to make catches in deep space, and the Rams could use another toy for Bradford to work with. If the Rams lose Brandon Lloyd in free agency (which has a good chance of happening) and fail to attract a receiver like Randy Moss, they will lose all outside depth at receiver. The Rams unfortunately possess to many slot wideouts, and Blackmon's outside routes could be just the thing needed to balance that. He is a tremendous offensive talent, and will be sorely needed.
Probability of it happening: 75%


OPTION 5: Draft Morris Claiborne second overall
Claiborne is the top defensive talent available, and he will undoubtedly help the weak Rams secondary. With new coach Chuck Cecil in the fold, Claiborne will be a new tool that he can work with and mold into an ideal defensive back. Claiborne may be a stretch drafting number two overall, but the Rams could definitely use him immediately.
Probability of it happening: 40%


OPTION 6: Trade out of the number two spot, Draft Kalil or Blackmon
Of course, this is probably the most popular scenario for Rams fans. Trade to a team like Cleveland or Washington who wants Griffin, then take a top 5 talent later with extra draft picks to bolster your haul. Kalil might be gone after the third pick (Minnesota), so drafting Blackmon if he's still available would be a no-brainer.
Probability of it happening: 85-90%


OPTION 7: Trade out of number two spot, Draft Claiborne or Griffin
The Rams' trade could result in them only having to choose between Claiborne or Griffin (or someone else), depending on how the dominos fall. If that's the case, I'm sure the Rams would be glad to grab either. It's unlikely Griffin will slide past 2 or 3, but if he does, the Rams may take a chance on him.
Probability of it happening: 50%


OPTION 8: Trade out of number two spot, Draft someone else
The Rams could trade out of the number two spot with a team in the mid-teens or so, so they might have a whole new class of players that they'd have to deal with. There are some good prospects like Quinton Coples, Trent Richardson, and so forth, but the Rams should be able to at least secure another first rounder from whatever team they trade with. Depending on the outcome of the first 10 picks or so, the Rams will have several options available. Otherwise they may just choose a mystery player.
Probability of it happening: 35%


OPTION 9: Draft someone else number two overall
I forgot to mention earlier the possibility of the Rams just drafting someone else we haven't mentioned at number two overall. Of course, this would mean that someone would have to immediately impress at the Combine or their Pro Day, otherwise the Rams would be reaching to draft someone else. It would be must easier to just trade down with someone, or trade down and try to trade back up. Otherwise there are no other players currently deserving of a number two selection by the Rams.
Probability of it happening: 5%

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Rams make more moves on the coaching front

The Rams made a flurry of moves lately on the coaching front, including hiring Jeff Fisher's son Brandon away from Detroit, as well as hiring a new general manager in Les Snead. Fisher's role is unclear at the moment but it will presumably be a defensive assistant. Snead was a wise choice; his experience in Jacksonville and Atlanta and turning those franchises around surely attracted the Rams in hiring him. His role in football operations is unclear, but he will work closely with Fisher on all football personnel moves. A pair of Titans in Dave McGinnis and Chuck Cecil have also joined the party in St. Louis, with McGinnis serving as assistant head coach and Cecil serving as defensive backs coach. McGinnis can certainly be counted on as Fisher's right hand man, while Cecil will try to revitalize a continually underperforming group of DBs. Perhaps some old-fashioned motivation will do.